Musings on NBA Analytics

Winning in any sport depends on the physical tools, mental fortitude and skill of the players, but such intrinsic attributes are only a part of the puzzle. Every sport that is not purely athletic—essentially all team sports—also involve strategy and luck. Coaches and managers create and implement strategies to maximize success, but how exactly do they decide which strategies are best? Sports teams are increasingly turning to data analysis or “analytics” to inform organizational decisions and in-game strategy.



Data analysis and advanced statistics (player and team metrics derived by combining other, more basic statistics) have long been a part of Major League Baseball. Baseball is a game that seems to lend itself well to analytics: every game is composed of a series of many probabilistic events (at bats) that result in one of several discrete outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs, etc.). The difference between average players and great players in baseball is not always easy to discern from a single game. The best hitter in the league might go 1-5 in any given game. It is only when statistics are aggregated over many games and seasons that greatness can truly be quantified.




Basketball is an entirely different beast. Star players seem to be able to singlehandedly take over games and drive their teams to victory. The best players consistently score 15 points or more per game and a star player’s impact seems to be directly observable just by the way teams play when they are on the floor. The impact of having a superstar like Michael Jordan or LeBron James on your team cannot be understated, but raw physical tools and skill are only one part of a winning formula. Any game whose outcome is decided by points is inherently numerical, which opens the door for data analysis to play a role in strategic decision-making. The Houston Rockets are the organization most known for using analytics to influence strategy, which has led them to prioritize 3-pointers and avoid long 2-point shots. Despite the Rockets’ success this year, analytics still has its critics. Former NBA star and commentator Charles Barkley is among the most vocal critics, going so far as to say Houston GM Daryl Morey is “one of those idiots who believes in analytics.” Whether analytics offers an edge is not something that will be decided in a debate between talking heads. It will be decided by the number of data analysts on NBA team payrolls and ultimately, the numbers on the scoreboard.